Russia’s position appears to be shifting as well. The Russian foreign minister, in an interview with conservative talk show host Tucker Carlson on Dec 6, insisted that there can be no peace in Ukraine without respect for Russia’s red lines. But he also indicated that a deal with Trump might be possible.
Four days later, Putin’s foreign intelligence chief and close ally Sergei Naryshkin claimed that Moscow is close to achieving its war aims in Ukraine. This could pave the way for Russia to enter into Trump-brokered talks and ultimately claim victory at the negotiation table.
ACTUAL PEACE TALKS MIGHT START
Taken together, all of this suggests that the endgame in the war might be approaching – at least in the sense that actual negotiations might start and achieve perhaps a ceasefire before the war’s three-year milestone in February 2025.
A longer-term peace agreement, however, still faces significant obstacles.
Ukraine is likely to have to accept the de facto loss of one-fifth of its territory. This will be a hard truth to accept given the sacrifices that the country has made and the suffering its people have endured.
It may still be possible for Ukraine and its Western allies to avoid formally recognising Russia’s landgrab. But the idea that once the frontlines are frozen any land can be retaken by Ukraine in subsequent negotiations, let alone by military means, is wishful thinking in light of the current balance of power between Moscow and Kyiv.
