Last week was another solid day for us in the player prop betting world, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that is was good for the players.
Jameis Winston couldn’t stay in the game long enough to avoid a benching, while David Montgomery was listed out for the year with an MCL injury.
Montgomery helped us cash a +500 prop on his receiving yards and a 1.9 units profit, bringing our season total up to 7.15 units of profit.
Hopefully we can avoid the injuries win some bets this Sunday.
Week 15 NFL player props
Brock Bowers over 67.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) | anytime touchdown scorer (+185, Fanatics) | 150+ receiving yards (+1600, Bet365)
The Jaguars just allowed Davante Adams to roll for nearly 200 passing yards, and we’re supposed to believe Brock Bowers won’t roll in this matchup?
Jacksonville is allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL, and they are No. 32 in Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass.
Bowers is their top passing target, and Aidan O’Connell is back as the starting quarterback.
We know he likes to drop back and pass, and the Raiders trust him.
Target Bowers early and often this weekend.
James Conner over 83.5 (-113, BetRivers) | 130+ (+525, Bet365) 150+ (+1000, Bet365)
James Conner has become the bell cow in Arizona and has the best matchup possible this weekend.
The Panthers are rated No. 32 in DVOA against the run and are allowing five yards per carry this season.
His projection is 18.5 rushing attempts and given the Jaguars’ five YPC allowed, we’re looking at a 92.5 projection based on my calculation.
You can even get fancy with it and add to an alternate total, 130+ is +525 on Bet365 and 150+ at 10/1.
Betting on the NFL?
Bucky Irving went 152 three weeks ago, while Saquon Barkley ran for 120.
Rico Dowdle rushed for 149 last week against this horrific Panthers run defense.
Watch Conner cook.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
