CFP and bowl picks ATS: How Arizona State should view Texas vs. Clemson, Tennessee rises, Penn State rolls

Arizona State is not in position to be selective about its opponent in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, but that won’t stop the Hotline from assessing the situation through pitchforked-shaped glasses.

And frankly, we aren’t convinced the Sun Devils would be better off facing No. 12 Clemson in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Most data points suggest they should root for the Tigers to upset No. 5 Texas this weekend in Austin.

The Longhorns are not only the higher-seeded team but also are substantially higher ranked than Clemson (by 13 spots in the final CFP rankings).

Also, the Longhorns are favored by double-digits to beat the Tigers and advance to the quarterfinals. The oddsmakers clearly view Texas as the better team, which should not be discounted.

What’s more, the Longhorns have one of the stingiest run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. That could prove problematic for ASU tailback Cam Skattebo.

And yet, the situation isn’t as clear as those facts suggest:

— Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has won multiple national championships and knows better than any current coach what is required to win on the sport’s grandest stage.

— The Tigers have momentum following their last-second victory in the ACC championship game, whereas Texas is coming off a loss to Georgia in the SEC title game.

— Is Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers a greater threat than Clemson’s Cade Klubnik?

Ewers has thrown 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions against FBS opponents, while Klubnik has thrown five more touchdowns (25) than interceptions (five) against major college teams.

Also, Klubnik is a threat to make plays with his legs; Ewers is not.

Even though Texas has more talent, Clemson might be more dangerous in the quarterfinals, especially given that its campus is two hours from Atlanta. The Tigers would have a massive edge in crowd support against ASU — to a greater extent, perhaps, than the Longhorns.

Add it up, and ASU’s preferred outcome might not be the one the rankings — and the point spread — suggest.

To the picks ..

Season: 70-55-2
Five-star special: 8-7

All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com

(All times Pacific)

UNLV (+1) vs. Cal (LA Bowl)
Kickoff: Wednesday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: One team lost its head coach; the other lost its quarterback. Will Barry Odom’s departure for Purdue have a greater impact on the Rebels than Fernando Mendoza’s entrance into the transfer portal will have on the Bears? Cal is expected to start either third-stringer CJ Harris or freshman EJ Caminong. We’d rather have UNLV’s problems than Cal’s issues. Pick: UNLV

SMU (+8.5) at Penn State (CFP)
Kickoff: Saturday at 9 a.m. on TNT
Comment: Combine Penn State’s talent with the Beaver Stadium atmosphere and the weather forecast (temperatures in the 20s), and the Mustangs are out of their league three times over with this assignment. Pick: Penn State