BUCHAREST — Romania’s ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) appears to have taken an early lead in pivotal parliamentary elections, which could determine the fate of the country’s pro-Western policies, including its future assistance to Ukraine.
The December 1 vote comes a week after the country’s disputed presidential election in which a pro-Russian, far-right candidate pulled off a surprise first-round victory.
With 27 percent of polling stations reporting, the left-leaning PSD led with 24.3 percent of the vote, with the far-right, ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) next at 17.9 percent.
Experts caution that such early official results can be misleading as votes from the larger cities often come last and could move results sharply in either direction.
The official results reflect an exit poll conducted by CURS and released by Digi24 as voting ended at 9 p.m. in Bucharest, giving the PSD 26 percent, with the AUR next at 19 percent.
The Liberal Party (PNL) — a junior coalition partner to the PSD – and the center-right Save Romania Union (USR) followed with about 15 percent each in the exit polls.
The party gaining the most votes will likely nominate the prime minister.
If no party — as expected — reaches a parliamentary majority, hard negotiations will follow on forming a government and could depend on the outcome of next week’s presidential runoff.
Analysts have suggested a tenuous coalition could develop with the left-leaning PSD and the center-right PNL and USR combining forces. Such a development would help ensure Romania’s pro-Western policies against the emerging far-right — and often Russian-friendly — parties.
Experts have cautioned that exit polls could be misleading following surprising results from the presidential first round a week earlier and the fact that crucial diaspora voting is not included in the polls.
Full results in the December 1 parliamentary elections — which featured some 10,000 registered candidates — are not likely to be known until at least midday on December 2, or even later.
Far-right candidates, who also performed surprisingly well in the presidential election first round, were expected to make gains in the parliamentary voting.
Turnout was reported at 52.36 percent, or about 9.43 million voters, the highest in parliamentary elections in 12 years, according to officials.
Turnout in the 2020 parliamentary vote was reported at 32 percent.
No major irregularities were reported by the early evening.
Diaspora results – with some 643,000 eligible voters – could play a key role, although it is unclear which parties foreign-based Romanians favor.
More than three dozen parties and coalitions, along with independent candidates, were competing for seats in the bicameral legislature: 329 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 136 in the Senate. Exit polls indicated similar voting patterns for both legislative bodies.
A preelection poll had showed the far-right AUR leading the pack with 22.4 percent backing, just ahead of the ruling Social Democrats at 21.4 percent.
The AUR has staked out anti-Western positions, questioning Romania’s membership in the European Union and NATO, alongside xenophobic and other conspiratorial rhetoric.
Under outgoing President Klaus Iohannis, Romania has been a strong supporter of NATO, as well as neighboring Ukraine in its fight against the 2 1/2-year-old Russian invasion.
A shift toward more Russian-friendly leaders could endanger support for Ukraine, analysts say.
The center-right USR, meanwhile, was polling at 17.5 percent, according to the survey. Its candidate for president, Elena Lasconi, will face pro-Russian, far-right candidate Calin Georgescu in the December 8 runoff vote.
The Liberal Party was listed at 13.4 percent.
Along with the divide between the East and West, Romanians have expressed concerns about the country’s ailing economy and rampant corruption.
The diaspora vote is also expected to be heavy. By 7 p.m. Romania time, officials said more than 115,000 Romanians had voted in Italy, 110,000 in Britain, and 108,000 in Germany.
Moldova is a key voting space for Romanian elections. Most of Moldova was part of Romania until the end of World War II and many Moldovans also hold Romanian citizenship.
By 7:30 p.m., officials reported that more than 73,000 Romanian citizens had voted in Moldova. In last week’s presidential election, more than 80,000 cast ballots in the country.
Experts have voiced caution about preelection polling figures, pointing to Georgescu’s unexpected victory in the first round of the presidential vote on November 24.
Lasconi, a small-town mayor who is a vocal supporter of Romania’s NATO and EU alliances, finished second in that vote, barely beating leftist Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu.
The Central Election Bureau has begun a court-ordered recount of all ballots cast in the first round, as accusations swirled that Georgescu illegally used TikTok to boost his campaign, among other alleged irregularities.
The Constitutional Court is expected to validate the first-round results on December 2 after the parliamentary vote is completed, people familiar with the court’s plans told RFE/RL’s Romanian Service.
Romania’s president has significant decision-making powers, including on matters of national security and foreign policy. Elected for a five-year term, the president can also reject party nominees for prime minister and government nominees for judicial appointments.
With reporting by RFE/RL’s Moldovan Service
