As Hurricane Helene tore its way through the southeast United States, it shook hundreds of thousands of lives. It’s now one of the deadliest storms in American history, with over 220 people dead and hundreds still missing.
While the impact to human life is immeasurable, the storm also threatens to shake up the election, with each candidate’s response to the storm potentially impacting voters’ decisions when they head to the polls, research suggests. With another Class 5 hurricane on its way to the American southeast, the damage to infrastructure and potential delays in mail delivery could also hinder the actual process of voting.
Natural disasters, while devastating, are a chance for politicians to show voters their competence and humanity — or lack thereof — in a crisis, John Gasper, an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University, said in an interview with Salon.
Gasper’s prior research found that incumbent presidents who approve disaster funding are seen more favorably by voters and those that don’t are viewed negatively by voters.
“How an official responds ends up being a good test of leadership for a voter constituent,” Gasper said.
When a natural disaster strikes, a governor usually declares a state of emergency and has to request funding from the federal government through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The agency then does an analysis and makes a recommendation to the president, who decides if federal aid should be granted.
Though this is a process that has been used for years to disperse disaster funds, the GOP has spread lies about how FEMA spends its money, including that it distributes aid based on demographics. The rumors have become so widespread that the agency set up a page to debunk them all.
Shortly after the storm, Republican nominee Donald Trump flew to Georgia and quickly turned his visit political by criticizing President Joe Biden’s response to Helene. In a speech outside a furniture store in Valdosta, Ga., he falsely claimed that FEMA was “going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas,” and that Biden was refusing to answer phone calls from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. The governor immediately confirmed that he had, in fact, spoken with the president.
Trump has since spread a wealth of misinformation about FEMA’s response to Hurricane Helene, including that the agency was redirecting money from disaster funds to house migrants and that families were only being offered $750 in federal assistance.
While FEMA was in charge of administering a $650 million migrant housing program, those funds are entirely separate from FEMA’s disaster relief, according to Department of Homeland Security. The $750 payment Trump is referencing is just an “upfront” for impacted families, but they are still eligible for additional federal assistance, the FEMA website states.
Harris, meanwhile, took a less ostentatious approach, visiting FEMA headquarters in the immediate aftermath of the storm and delaying a visit to the Southeast until she was sure her presence would not disrupt emergency operations.
Natural disasters have a long history of impacting voter turnout and voters’ perception of political candidates’ competency. Hurricane Helene is the first major disaster to hit two critical swing states, Georgia and North Carolina, within six weeks of an election, according to a data analysis from E&E news.
North Carolina was the state hit the hardest by Helene, with 25 storm-impacted counties accounting for over 16% of the state’s voters, according to reporting from The Asheville Citizen Times. Buildings used for polling locations, such as schools and churches, were destroyed.
Mail-in voting in the state, previously delayed so ballots could be re-printed without Robert F. Kennedy as an option, began on Sept. 24, just three days before Helene struck. The storm has since stalled mail service and many ballots may have been destroyed or delayed by flooding.
These structural impacts could affect voter turnout, research suggests. In 2018, Hurricane Michael affected 3% of Florida’s polling locations and voter turnout across affected counties fell by 7%, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. It could be particularly impactful for the GOP, as the majority of the flooded counties lean red. In 2020, Trump won 61% of the vote in North Carolina counties impacted by the storm and 54% of impacted-counties in Georgia, according to reporting from Politico.
With so many red counties impacted, Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, are urging the North Carolina election board to allow voters to cast their ballots in whatever county they find themselves in — endorsing a late change to the rules that, critics note, is at odds with their rhetoric about pandemic-era changes and “election fraud.”
With in-person voting set to begin on Oct. 17, the North Carolina Board of Elections unanimously voted to make it easier for impacted residents by casting a ballot by changing voting hours and sites if needed, WHQR reported.
The board’s executive director Kristen Brinson Belle said in a statement the state will “do everything possible to ensure every eligible North Carolina voter can cast their ballot.”
“This storm is like nothing we’ve seen in our lifetimes in Western North Carolina. The destruction is unprecedented, and this level of uncertainty this close to Election Day is daunting,” she said.
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But Trump’s and Harris’ response to the storm — and voters’ perception of it — may be just as influential as infrastructure damage.
The optics of natural disaster response are a fine line. Any wrong move is often bolstered by negative media attention and will likely stay in a voter’s mind the closer a disaster is to an election, Gasper explained.
In 2017, a video of Trump jokingly throwing paper towels to Puerto Rican residents after Hurricane Maria struck the island went viral and continued to define his poor response to the disaster for years. He delayed more than $20 billion in hurricane relief to Puerto Rico and refused to accept the official number of deaths, which is still disputed to this day. While Puerto Ricans can’t vote in U.S. elections, Trump’s haphazard response to Hurricane Maria never faded.
When America’s deadliest storm, Hurricane Katrina, struck on Aug. 29, 2005, former President George W. Bush’s inaction struck doubt in his capabilities to respond to the crisis. At the time, Bush was vacationing at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. He did not fly back to Washington until two days later, after 28 days at the ranch.
Upon returning from vacation, Bush still didn’t spur into action, but rather distantly monitored developments from the White House. In an image that would haunt the former president for years, he was captured solemnly looking out of the window of Air Force One when he flew over New Orleans to survey the damage from above instead of on-the ground. The photo became a symbol of his distance and withdrawal from the response to Hurricane Katrina, in which over 1,800 people were killed.
The photo drew so much backlash that Bush himself admitted he should have approached the situation differently to appear less “detached and uncaring.”
After Katrina, 56% of Americans reported a lack of confidence in Bush’s ability to handle a crisis, according to a CBS poll. His response, and voters’ perception of it, is widely regarded as his political downfall.
In comparison, former President Barack Obama was praised for his response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which happened just a week before the 2012 election. Obama swiftly approved disaster declarations and impacted areas of New York and New Jersey just days after the storm. After being behind in the polls for most of October 2012, Obama jumped ahead of Republican nominee Mitt Romney after Sandy.
While there’s no proven correlation between Obama’s boost in popularity and his response to Sandy, more than three quarters of Americans said his handling of the storm was “excellent or good.”
Gasper said it’s “hard to say” whether Harris and Trump’s response to Helene will be a “deciding difference” in November’s election, but decisions and images may linger in voters’ minds as they head to the polls amidst devastating loss of life and livelihoods.
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