Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, North Korea will supply roughly enough troops to cover the average number of Russian losses in Ukraine each week, according to an analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Friday.
The Russia-Ukraine war has raged on for more than two years after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the “special military operation” in Ukraine in February 2022. Although Moscow aimed for a quick victory over its Eastern European neighbor, viewed as having a much smaller military, its spirited defense effort bolstered by Western aid, has blocked it from making substantial gains.
Western leaders view the deployment of North Korean troops into the battlefield as a significant escalation. This could lead to technology transfers from Moscow to Pyongyang, potentially advancing North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs, thus affecting Indo-Pacific relations.
Meanwhile, the ISW, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, analyzed numbers provided by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) and reports of North Korean troops training to deploy to Ukraine and found the number to be “unlikely to present Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower concerns.”
The U.S. has raised the alarm about North Korea’s plan to deploy approximately 10,000 North Korean soldiers to Russia, which will “probably augment Russian forces near Ukraine over the next several weeks,” Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters this week.
However, the ISW noted that this number seems relatively small when accounting for the number of Russian troops who are lost daily, which U.S. Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin stated was around 1,200 troops a day.
The contingent of North Korean troops, which ISW reports could be as many as 12,000, would therefore only cover around 10 days—at most—of Russian troops lost “if North Korean troops face the same casualty rates,” which would therefore undermine “battlefield lessons Pyongyang hopes to learn.”
“[North Korean leader] Kim [Jong Un] is unlikely to commit his forces to face such losses on the battlefield indefinitely,” the ISW wrote in its Friday assessment.
The Pentagon told Newsweek on Saturday via email that it didn’t have “any additional commentary to add” to reports about North Korean troops and deployment to Russia, adding, “Generally, we do not speak to matters that pertain exclusively to Russia or the DPRK.”
Newsweek has reached out to the State Department by email on Saturday afternoon for comment.
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However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that U.S. and Chinese officials held “a robust conversation just this week,” emphasizing the need for Beijing to “use the influence that they have to work to curb these activities.”
ISW noted that from publicly available information and statements from Pentagon officials, it remains unclear how Russia plans to utilize the North Korean troops. One assessment determined that the troops most likely aimed to “engage in the war on Russia’s behalf in order to gain valuable combat experience in a modern war.”
The lack of regular, modern warfare between top military powers has proven to be one of the complicating factors of Russia’s invasion. Russia had planned to take Ukraine in mere days by capturing Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, but the smaller nation fought back with stockpiled weapons provided by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies.
As the conflict continued, some experts feared that the war would prove a testing ground for Russian allies to see how their weapons fared against NATO—and more specifically U.S.—weapons and defense systems.
Iran and North Korea appeared to take full advantage of this situation, providing Russia with drones and munitions and allegedly taking note of performance. Providing troops to Russia, where they can gain vital and rare modern warfare experience, could be the next step in North Korea’s plans to continue trying to build its military forces.
However, the deployment of North Korean troops can prove more problematic. Austin told reporters this week that the troops were seen wearing Russian military uniforms as they deployed to Ukraine.
In addition, South Korea’s intelligence agency said that an initial batch of 1,500 fighters had traveled to Russia, and were kitted out with Russian military uniforms, Russian-made weapons and fake documents claiming the fighters were residents of regions in Siberia. More troops were expected to travel soon, the agency said in mid-October.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the U.S. and NATO allies to act before North Korean troops can take action, writing in a Telegram post that “everyone is waiting” until North Korea does something, at which point it could be too late.
