Former President Donald Trump’s chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris to win a second presidential term is “close to 100 percent” if Republicans are able to bring out their voters and stay focused, his former adviser Steve Bannon told Newsweek in an interview after leaving prison.
Bannon was released from prison in Danbury, Connecticut last week after serving four months for contempt of Congress. The host of the War Room podcast spent much of his waking hours learning about his fellow inmates and devising strategies for Republican victories in the presidential and down-ballot races, he said.
Whether Trump wins or loses, Bannon added that losing the U.S. House would be a failure that would fall squarely on the shoulders of Speaker Mike Johnson.
The following is a transcript of the interview, lightly edited for concision and clarity.
What are your thoughts on the presidential race with just days to go?
If you had told me with all this work and the precinct strategy, all this stuff that the weekend before Election Day that we would have boxed her (Harris) into a corner where she’s got to win the blue wall … The reason she’s spending so much time in Wisconsin, she knows she’s got to hold that. It looks like North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada may have slipped away. We’ve cut her alternative ways to the White House down to the blue wall and we’ve got two, maybe three shots. Wisconsin looks very problematic for her, and so does Pennsylvania.
We know she’s still going around trying to persuade people, Black men, Hispanic men. We know there’s no undecideds on Trump; it’s just all execution. … We’re always much stronger on Election Day than they are. Not even close. And so I think that this is as well positioned as we could ever hope. Look, I’m not a believer in chasing the popular vote. I’m not a believer in going to some of these states to try to expand the numbers past 270 [in the Electoral College]. Anything we get above that is great. I think that we’re as good and well positioned as we could be.
What’s what would you say your confidence level is right now of a Trump victory?
In 2016, I had 100 percent metaphysical certitude, as I told Trump the entire time—although the polling was awful. If we execute on the ground game on Tuesday to the degree that we should be able to, I feel close to 100 percent we can get this just given where this is breaking down. And remember, they haven’t built any firewalls by early voting.
So, I feel very good if we execute, but that’s what our big problem is: complacency. Overconfidence. You know, people just losing focus. So, that’s why I’ve expanded now to 10 hours, maybe 12 hours, of broadcasting just over the weekend and do nothing but have grassroots people on to have people motivated because this is all about just putting the metaphorical lead on target.
When you say complacency, are you talking about the Trump campaign or the voter base?
Not the Trump campaign, but look, this is all about low propensity voters. She’s got some pretty good news. This thing still hangs in the balance. Although I like our hand better, they’ve done a good job on what I’ve warned about is the Taylor Swift or the credential class female. They’ve done a pretty good job of getting to that and turning that out.
Now, I don’t think that has the weight at the end of the day. Remember, there are no undecideds. That whole thing about undecided and persuadable [voters] I think is pretty ridiculous. This is a base-plus election. A lot of the people that make up the difference, some are in our victory margins or people that you don’t know; they don’t vote in a lot of elections and some of them don’t vote unless Trump’s on the ticket.
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So you think that Harris not doing as well with Black and Latino voters would offset the higher female vote margins coming out?
I think that the higher female vote margin has to be layered on top of a good turnout of African Americans and Hispanics. … I’ll bet you there’s a lot of people in the Democratic Party right now at the senior levels that understand if they lose on Tuesday, they lost this by not having a mini primary between the time [President Joe] Biden got out and the time before the Democrat Convention—that [Michigan Governor Gretchen] Whitmer, [Pennsylvania Governor Josh] Shapiro, [Illinois Governor J.B.] Pritzker, Michelle Obama, [California Governor Gavin] Newsom did not get in and at least show the weaknesses of Harris [that] could make her stronger.
Can you describe your experience at Danbury? And did you have any communication with the Trump campaign or GOP operatives?
Definitely communication every day with the groups that we work with, through my staff and about the show and everything like that. I didn’t do many phone calls, but I probably worked 16 to 18 hours every day and hours and hours on email making sure I had my hand on the pulse. I was looking at polling data. I felt like I was very up to speed with what was going on.
What’s most fascinating is that I see the coalition. It’ll be the unsung heroes. People go through the stats, particularly the Black and Hispanic men do not show up to vote for her. … I would teach these [civics] classes [in prison] and these guys would start talking and they knew a lot about her and a lot about her history as a U.S. attorney, a lot about her history as AG [attorney general] of California, which most people just don’t know. So, her thing on mass incarcerations is coming back to haunt her.
With the last election and the challenges, do you anticipate a fair election? What’s the aftermath look like?
If you look at Lancaster, PA, look what happened in Fulton County [November 2] with their illegally extending these districts to take mail ballots. Look at what’s happened in Arizona with the voter rolls. Did the attorney general really scrub the voter rolls? There’s a whole firestorm out there.
Look, we admit we don’t match up to [Democratic party elections attorney] Marc Elias. You’ve got the best of the best; you’ve got the best in class in his firm and his other lawyers. They’re killers and you don’t hire those guys unless you’re prepared to go to the mattresses; they’re going to come after us with everything. So, I think that’s all to play out. But you can see on these initial rulings in the least the fact that Republicans are going and being very aggressive.
I don’t know if you’ve had any contact directly with his campaign the past few months, but is there any chance that you could be part of a second Trump administration?
I talk to people on the campaign all the time. There is zero [chance]. I have the War Room; it is the media platform for the activist wing of the Trump movement, and that is my best use. I’ve done a stint in the White House. I love President Trump. We work 24 hours a day on this, but he needs—particularly given the weakness of Fox [News] and the neo-con neoliberal tendencies of Fox—a platform of information sharing 24-7. … I know I’m most effective in this. I’m interested in results, not positions. I have been a staffer in the White House and I’m just not cut out to go back and be a staffer again.
Say Trump does lose, what would you point to as the biggest reason why?
Well, No. 1, he’s not gonna lose. … You know [Democratic Representative Jamie] Raskin will be the head guy in in the anti-Trump movement and he’s going to lead with not certifying the election on January 6. They’re blatant about this. So, we have to win the House. You cripple the Trump presidency at its second term at its inception if you don’t hold the House. The House is much more important than the Senate right now.
If the House goes to the Democrats, who gets the most blame?
I don’t think there’s any doubt it’s (Mike) Johnson and not just Johnson, but his leadership team. They had every opportunity when Kevin McCarthy got thrown out to come in full throated with a real agenda and they failed to do it. By the way, if [the House] gets held I don’t give any credit to Johnson. I give zero credit to Johnson. So I give all credit to Trump. Trump’s dragging these guys across the finish line. Johnson didn’t have Trump’s back whatsoever in his speakership—didn’t do anything on January 6, didn’t do anything on anything. All happy talk. He’s being bailed out by Trump.
But look, it’s beyond the congressmen that MAGA can’t stand. They have to win the seats. There are a bunch of RINOs [Republicans In Name Only] in here that you’re not going to like. It doesn’t matter. We need 218 [seats] and we’ve got to get it because if you don’t, you’re going to cripple Trump’s presidency right out of the box.
