The National Hurricane Center describes Oscar as a “tiny” hurricane with a compact inner core; Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Oscar on Sunday.
From the National Weather Center
Hurricane Oscar formed Saturday off the coast of The Bahamas . . . Forecast models indicating Oscar could make landfall and move inland over eastern Cuba . . . thereafter, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, as the extent and duration of land interaction will dictate the depth of the vortex and how it is steered. For now, the longer-range forecast shows Oscar turning northward and accelerating northeastward through midweek ahead of an amplifying upper trough.
Intensity forecast for Oscar remains challenging as its compact size makes it susceptible to more rapid intensity fluctuations
While some near-term intensification cannot be ruled out, satellite trends indicate the hurricane could be starting to feel the effects of northwesterly shear, which the global models insist will increase through Sunday. The NHC forecast still shows Oscar reaching the coast of Cuba as a hurricane on Sunday night.
Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the northern coast
Afterwards, land interaction and stronger shear should induce weakening, which could occur even faster than forecast if the center of the small cyclone remains inland as long as some of the guidance suggests.
