LAS VEGAS — Connecticut has dominated the last two NCAA men’s basketball tournaments, having beaten the spread in all 12 games en route to two national championships.
However, the Huskies’ rule extends to 2018. Danny Hurley took over as coach, and they’ve covered the line an astounding 61.3% (120-75-4) of the time.
According to TeamRankings.com, among programs that have played at least 150 lined games in that span entering this season, UConn tops the land. Nobody else is in the exclusive 60% club.
So it’s fitting to lead off a primer for 2024-25 with the dynamo of the sport that has returned 37.5 units of profit to anyone who has simply blind-bet the Huskies over the last six seasons.
Hurley is the Mad Roundball Scientist. I’d wager that observing his practices alone, over the course of a single season, would yield a best-selling tome, as few coaches get more out of their charges.
As if the foe doesn’t matter, that the real enemy is the spread.
It would be folly to pass on UConn’s money-making ability. On Monday, I bought a +900 futures ticket on the Huskies, for insurance, to three-peat. They’d be the first to accomplish that since UCLA from 1967 to ’73.
Long Island handicapper Tom Barton is passing on such a ducat for lack of value. Two years ago, he got 55-1 on UConn; last year, he and I nabbed tickets in the 20s.
Statistics guru Ken Pomeroy projects the Huskies going 27-2 this regular season, and I’ll be on them to cover many of those tilts.
Zags over Huskies?
Southern California ’capper Tommy Lorenzo has acted on Gonzaga and Marquette. The Zags, at +360 to make the Final Four, walloped Baylor in Spokane on Monday night.
On Monday afternoon at Circa Sports, I got 16-to-1 odds on Gonzaga to win it all and believe that, finally, in his 26th season coaching the Bulldogs, Mark Few will get his first national title. Guards Ryan Nembhard and Khalif Battle, swingman Michael Ajayi, and big men Ben Gregg and Graham Ike provide Few with toughness.
Finally, a hoops season comes along in which the Zags aren’t exactly in the national spotlight. Then again, on Tuesday, 12 hours after Gonzaga had zapped Baylor, the Bulldogs’ title odds had been cut to 10-1.
In fact, I’m taking Gonzaga to beat UConn in the finale, avenging two recent losses to the Huskies. Alabama (+240 Final Four and 10-1 title odds at DraftKings) and Kansas (+200, 10-1) round out my Final Four.
“The Zags are senior-laden and have added transfers that make them very scary,” Lorenzo said. “They went to the Sweet 16 [in March], and the sky is the limit in 2024-25.”
I had earmarked Baylor among the four finalists, which I retract. Not so much due to how Gonzaga utterly dismantled the Bears on Monday, but upon inspection of the Kansas roster.
Penciled in at sixth man for 22nd-year coach Bill Self is AJ Storr, a well-traveled 6-7 shooting guard who averaged 16.8 points and nearly four boards per game last season at Wisconsin.
Point guard Dajuan Harris Jr., Zeke Mayo, Rylan Griffin, KJ Adams Jr., Hunter Dickinson and Storr might be the country’s best sextet.
UConn has one returning starter, and Lorenzo views land mines all over the Big East, which is why he took Marquette, at +800, to win the league.
“There’s continuity, as head coach Shaka Smart did not go to the portal,” he said. “Marquette has an experienced roster whose players are all familiar with Smart’s system.
“And as with all Shaka Smart teams, they take care of the ball and play good defense, which is key to getting them to improve on their Sweet 16 performance from last season.”
He got 20-1 at DraftKings on the Golden Eagles to make the Final Four. At Circa on Monday, I bought a 65-1 title ticket on Marquette as insurance.
Under the radar
Barton, though, isn’t fond of Smart, saying his strategies and adjustments amount to smoke and mirrors. Grand Canyon and fifth-year coach Bryce Drew impress Barton.
The Antelopes are 15th ATS at 57.6% in Drew’s tenure. DraftKings has them 65-1 to make the Final Four, 250-1 to win the crown.
“I am already in on Grand Canyon to win it all,” Barton said. “Gives me a great hedging opportunity if they make the tournament. They’re -1000 to win the Western Athletic Conference, so it seems very likely.”
He has Xavier, at 10-1, winning the Big East. He likes Dayton and senior guard Enoch Cheeks, at +300, to win the Atlantic 10.
Barton foresees North Carolina (+400 Final Four and 18-1 title odds at Circa) and Duke (+175, 10-1) jousting for the national title in San Antonio, and he calls Blue Devils 6-9 freshman Cooper Flagg “special.”
However, he favors under-the-radar plays, and Barton highlights High Point and second-year boss Alan Huss, at -200, to win the Big South.
“The Panthers are well-coached and have an easy schedule, where they will be favored in every single game,” Barton said. “The bold prediction is they won’t lose more than two to three games.”
