US election: Race too early to call as count goes on – DW – 11/06/2024

Kamala Harris has won the state of Virginia. 

Although it used to be considered a swing state, Virginia has reliably gone for Democrats in recent cycles.

Democratic strongholds in the state include DC suburban areas such as Fairfax County and cities such as Norfolk, Richmond and Charlottesville.   

Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has defeated incumbent Senate Democrat Sherrod Brown.

Brown, who is known for his pro-labor stances, has been in office since 2007.

With Moreno’s victory, the Republicans are very likely to take control of the US Senate from the Democrats. 

As more and more states are called or projected for Donald Trump, people at Howard University are slowly starting to realize that Kamala Harris might lose. There are tears, nobody here expected this.

They just can’t believe that a man who is so openly racist and misogynistic might win the election. Many people are already leaving this election night party, even though it’s far too early to call the election.

CNN just quoted from a memo by Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon in which she said that there’s still a path to victory for the vice president, and it involves the “Blue Wall,” so the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan going to the Democrats.

O’Malley Dillon told staffers to finish out the night, following that with: “I’ll see you tomorrow.” So the Harris campaign does not believe a result will be announced tonight.

But important counties in Georgia went to Donald Trump.

And at least for the moment, it even looks like he’s ahead in the popular vote. That’s something that many Democrats, many people in Washington DC, and especially many students here at Howard University just didn’t want to believe. Now reality is kind of brutally coming into their lives.

Donald Trump has won the major battleground state of North Carolina. 

The state has 16 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes in total to win the presidency. 

Harris also won Oregon, a West Coast state that typically goes for Democrats in presidential elections. She also won New Mexico. 

Early vote returns in US battleground states may not be a good indicator of the eventual winner in some battlegrounds thanks to vote counting rules and anomalies in certain key states.

In 2020, some states showed a “red mirage” that saw Donald Trump out in front initially on election night, red being the color of the former president’s Republican Party.

That was before a “blue shift” saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him as mail-in ballots — more popular with Democratic voters at the time of the coronavirus pandemic — were counted.

Ahead of the 2024 election, experts had said this could happen again — especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

One factor that can also lead to red mirage is that Democrats tend to live in more populous urban areas, where counting can take longer.

However, the opposite can also happen, with a “blue mirage” apparently showing a strong result for the Democrats, only for a “red shift” to reverse the trend.

Lawrence Douglas, professor of law and social thought at Amherst College told DW that the Electoral College does not reflect the will of the people and is not an adequate system to elect a president that serves a national role.

“When we elect a president, it’s not states that are electing the president. It should be the American people who are electing the president,” Douglas said. 

“The president, after all, is a national figure, not a figure who represents the interests of specific states,” he said.

You can watch the full interview here. 

Polls are now closing in California, Oregon and Washington.

California and Washington have been won by Kamala Harris.

Oregon will almost certainly be won by Harris. 

Idaho is more conservative and has now been called for Trump. 

Hawaii and Alaska will also close their polling stations in the coming hours. Hawaii will almost certainly go for Harris, where Alaska will be a win for Trump.  

Harris has won Maine District 1.

The state of Maine splits up electoral votes. Two electoral votes are given to the popular vote winner in the state, whereas one electoral vote is allocated to the popular vote winner in each district.      

Donald Trump has won Kansas and Iowa.

Kansas has been mostly considered a red state in recent presidential cycles.

Iowa, meanwhile, went for Democratic President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.  

The Cuban-American community here in Little Havana has traditionally been pretty Republican. It is certainly a very Trump-supporting community and you really feel that here tonight. You are constantly having cars and trucks drive by and honk their horns. Everyone is flying their flags on the corner.

This is even stronger after the state of Florida was called for Trump pretty early on in the evening, giving the people here the confidence that Trump was having a strong night that would be replicated in other parts of the country. Obviously it’s still early, so we don’t know if that’s the case. But there’s still a party atmosphere here on the streets. And so far nothing has happened that has suggested they don’t have a reason to feel confident.

Trump supporters express doubts about election process

One thing I have asked pretty much everyone that I’ve talked to here is whether they would accept a result in which Harris won. Everyone has said “yes,” they would accept that. But there’s always a bit of a “but” that comes after that. People are expressing concerns that there will be what some people call “shenanigans” in the count in some states. I think that reflects the doubts that Donald Trump has successfully sowed in the Republican Party about the electoral process.

This is causing a lot of concern that if there is a very close result in certain swing states such as Pennsylvania, there could be a repeat of the events of 2020, which were so destructive to the United States and its reputation in the world. So while people are saying they would accept a Harris win, that “but” is certainly something to watch out for.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has won Colorado, which has 10 electoral votes. 

Although Colorado was earlier a swing state, it has gone reliably Democratic in recent presidential elections.   

Harris also won the Washington DC area, which is also a Democratic stronghold. 

Abortion, one of the big issues in the presidential elections, was on the ballot in several states. In Florida, a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would have negated the six-week abortion ban currently in place, failed to pass. The measure would have enshrined abortion protections up to the point of viability for a fetus, or about the 24th week of pregnancy. It needed a 60% approval from voters to pass. With around 90% of the votes counted, it fell short of that goal by a few percentage points.

It’s a big win for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, who heavily opposed the amendment. The six-week abortion ban is criticized by abortion rights activists because this early in a pregnancy, many people don’t even know they’re pregnant yet. Nine other states have abortion measures aiming to protect or strengthen reproductive rights on the ballot: Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New York and South Dakota. None of these have been called yet, as only small percentages of the votes have been counted so far.

Polls have now closed in the key swing state of Nevada. 

The state has 6 electoral votes, and was won by Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020. 

Polls have also closed in Montana and Utah, where Donald Trump has won both states, picking up a combined 10 electoral votes. 

Montana is where a key Senate race is taking place between Democratic incumbent Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.

If Democrats wish to keep a majority in the senate, Tester will likely need to hold on to his seat. Recent opinion polls show Sheehy ahead of Tester.    

Polls also closed in Idaho. 

Republican President Donald Trump has won Missouri, which has 10 electoral votes.

Missouri reliably goes for Republicans in presidential races.